Rising speculation about “papal candidates” but no one mentions the Holy Spirit

Manuel Quintero, QUITO, Ecuador, October 31, 2003

The anguished decline of a Pope who marked the life of the Catholic Church and Taxi Heathrow Airport the world over the course of a remarkable quarter century is taking place against a backdrop of increasing speculation about his successor.

What is certain is that papal elections do not always fit the forecasts. Perhaps in modern times they are not as startling as the selection of Pope Fabian (236-250), a layman and peasant who arrived in Rome on the day the new Pope was to be elected. A dove flew and landed on his head and the congregated clergy and lay people took it as a sign and he was elected by acclamation. However, they are no less surprising.

In 1978 the election of John Paul II, the first non-Italian Pope in 455 years took experts by surprise, commonly known as Vaticanologists, who had been expecting a more traditional succession. Needless to say Karol Wojtyla was elected after eight rounds of voting.

No matter what, the art of speculating fills newspaper columns and is a gold mine for major news chains who are already calculating how much it is going to cost to set up their cameras and microphones on buildings near Saint Peter’s basilica in order to be the first to broadcast the news of who Pope John Paul’s successor will be.

What does tradition teach us, according to the most conspicuous Vaticanologists? That after a long papal period the Church tends to chose an older person, moderate, who will ensure the transition. These same analysts, however, do not hesitate to say that a young man may also be selected who will continue the work of his predecessor.

What is certain is that over the course of the XX Century, the preference has been for older men. Giuseppe Melchiorre Sarto (Pío X) was 68 when he was elected Pope in 1903, substituting León XIII; Giacomo della Chiesa (Benedicto XV) 60; Ambrogio Damiano Achille Ratti (Pío XI) 64; Eugenio María Giovanni Pacelli (Pío XII) 63; AngeloGiuseppe Roncalli (Juan XXIII) 76; Giovanni Battista Montini (Paul VI) and Albino Luciani (John Paul  I)  68.

Only Karol Wojtyla differed as he was elected to succeed John Paul I when he was barely 58. Given his advanced age, John XXIII was considered a “transition” pope, however, it was John XXIII who convened the new Ecumenical Council.

John Paul II will have been Pope for the third longest period in history, surpassed only by Leon XIII (25 years and 5 months) who died in 1903 at age 93 and Pio IX (31 years, 7 months and 21 days) who became pope at age 54 in 1846.

It is worth recalling that Leon XIII, who became Pope at age 68 with failing health, was also considered a “transition pope.” However, he lived for another 25 years, mocking the predictions.

For some, age is not fundamental but rather a return to the tradition of an Italian Pope as these prelates have the most experience in managing problems related to the papal curia, or the central government of the Roman Catholic Church. However, the Italians barely constitute 17 percent of cardinals with a right to vote, their lowest percentage in Church history. 

The most frequently mentioned candidates are Dionigi Tettamanzi (Milán), age 69, Angelo Scola (Venice), age 61, Tarcisio Bertone (Génova) age 69 and Vatican Secretary of State Angelo Sodano, age 76 and prefect of the Congregation for Bishops and Giovanni Battista Re, age 69.

Those who opt for a Latin American pope are opposed to this trend and seek greater recognition for the world’s most Catholic continent, home to more than 50 percent of 1 billion baptized Catholics.

With 25 cardinals from 13 countries with the right to vote, Latin America has become the second most influential voting block, following Europe.

The most recognized Latin American candidates include Colombian Darío Castrillón Hoyos, age 74, Honduran Oscar Andrés Rodríguez Maradiaga, age 61, archbishop of  Tegucigalpa; Argentine Jorge Mario Bergoglio, age 66 and archbishop of Buenos Aires and Brazilian Claudio Hummes, age 69 and archbishop of Sao Paulo.

Regarding a candidate who is neither European nor Latin American, experts point to Cardinal Francis Arinze of Nigeria. Age 70, he would, according to the reigning “common sense” be a “transition” pope.

While Latin American continues to be the par excellence Catholic continent it is also that part of the world where the Catholic Church is losing faithful on a major scale while, to the contrary, Catholicism is growing by leaps and bounds in Africa.

Arinze would be the second Black pope in 1,500 years of Catholic history. The previous one, Pope Gelasio (492-496) achieved celebrity for compiling a list of approved authors that contains works by the Holy Fathers accepted by the Church. He also named the Christian martyr Valentin, executed February 14 270, “Patron of Lovers” in a bid to counter arrest the fascination that Christian youth had for the Lupercals, a Roman pagan festival at the end of the V Century.

Meanwhile, in the midst of the plethora of speculations what the majority of analysts seem to overlook is the role of the Holy Spirit, that Spirit that clamors Abba from the heart of all Christians and that will preside the meeting where John Paul II’s successor is elected.

When that moment arrives, millions of Christians around the world will pray so that the cardinals’ decision be inspired by the Spirit so that the new Pope, no matter what his origin, will incarnate a service vocation and a commitment to the best causes of humanity.